- All
- 2024
- Asset Mania's
- BITCOIN
- Climate Change Bubble
- Creative Destruction
- Decentralization
- Economic Winter Watch
- Economics
- Economy
- GOLD
- Interest Rates
- Japan
- Kondratieff's Monetary Wave
- Market's
- Ponzi Finance
- Population Growth
- Questions
- Real Estate
- Recession Watch
- Schumpeter
- TELTAAM
- The Economic LongWave Podcast
- The Kondratieff Cycle
- The LongWave Model
Canada's Perfect Storm: High Debt Service Ratios Meet Political Risk The latest Bank for International Settlements (BIS) data release for H2 2024 shows a concerning pattern for Canada's private sector Debt Service Ratio (DSR). At 24.9%, Canada's DSR towers above other developed economies, painting a picture of an economy increasingly vulnerable to financial and political[...]
Canada's Household Debt: The End of the Credit Era? The story of Canadian household debt over the past five decades reads like a cautionary tale. Recent data from Statistics Canada and the Bank of Canada paints a stark picture: Canadian households have embarked on a borrowing spree that has taken total household credit from a[...]
Understanding the Economic Seasons: A Look at the Kondratieff Wave The Kondratieff wave, named after the Russian economist Nikolai Kondratiev who first proposed the theory in the 1920s, offers a fascinating lens through which to view economic cycles. According to this theory, the global economy experiences long-term cycles of boom and bust, spanning several[...]
Think of great investors as better at reading the odds, but with an important twist: they also understand that what you pay for changes those odds dramatically. It's like the lottery example but now consider the ticket price. If a lottery ticket costs $1, and you have a decent chance of winning $100, that might[...]
In February 1989, Toronto's real estate market was at the peak of a housing bubble. The high five-year fixed mortgage rate of 12.25% at the time reflects a general environment of high interest rates used to curb inflation throughout the late 1980s. While initially not deterring buyers due to speculative investment and demand outpacing supply,[...]
US Stock Valuations Have Reached Extreme Levels: A 95-Year Perspective. In the ongoing debate about US stock market valuations, a striking chart from the Financial Times' Daily Shot presents a compelling visualization of how extraordinary current market conditions are. By examining the ratio of non-financial market capitalization to corporate gross value-added from 1929 to 2024,[...]
The sharp downturn shown in the chart illustrates a K-wave's peak and subsequent downturn, where excessive financialization has led to economic vulnerabilities. This phase could be marked by a correction or a deflationary period where asset prices adjust and economic realities come to the forefront. Understanding this cycle is crucial for forecasting future economic trends[...]
Toronto's housing affordability trends from 1976 to 2024 reflect a sharp and persistent decline in affordability, as seen in the dramatic rise in the price-to-income ratio. Here's a detailed analysis: Long-Term Trend in Housing Affordability The price-to-income ratio (inflation-adjusted) rose from 4.4 in 1976 to 16.0 in 2023, reflecting a 512% increase in real home[...]
1/ Lower rates = bigger market. More folks can afford loans when monthly payments drop. Simple math: same house, lower payment = more potential borrowers. 2/ Quality boost: When rates fall, existing borrowers breathe easier. Their debt payments shrink relative to income. Default risk ⬇️ 3/ The fixed-income goldmine: Banks holding long-duration bonds saw[...]
Key Observations Real Boom (Green Box): This period refers to historically robust population growth driven by organic economic factors. These could include: Natural Population Growth: High birth rates or family sizes. Economic Prosperity: Agricultural or industrial expansions providing stable economic opportunities. Immigration Waves: Large-scale immigration, particularly during Canada's nation-building era in the late 19th[...]
The financial markets are sending clear signals about Canada's economic trajectory. The significant gap between the Bank of Canada's policy rate (3.75%) and the 3-month T-Bill rate (3.43%) isn't just a technical detail - it's revealing a compelling narrative about our economic future. Markets are pricing in cuts between 0.25% to 0.50%, but this anticipated[...]
Devil Take the Hindmost by Edward Chancellor was the first book I picked up about speculation and market euphoria, and it left a lasting impression. The book masterfully outlines the dangers of following the crowd, the perils of unchecked credit bubbles, the risks of leverage, and the folly of overpaying for assets. Chancellor’s deep dive into[...]
Gold In Canadian Dollars with a 24-month ROC! LOG FORMAT (Gold in CAD): The price of gold in Canadian Dollars has shown a long-term uptrend, with recent acceleration to all-time highs. Key inflection points, such as the spikes around 1980, 2011, and the present, indicate strong bullish momentum during these periods. The steep rise reflects[...]
For decades, mortgage credit has been a cornerstone of Canada’s housing market and broader economy. Today, we find ourselves at an inflection point: credit levels have soared to unprecedented heights, yet growth is slowing. What does this mean for Canada’s future housing market and economic stability? Let’s dive into the data and explore the trends[...]
