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Latest Posts

  • The Kondratieff Cycle & Martin Armstrong’s cycle

    Published On: August 29, 2024Categories: The Kondratieff Cycle

      This is where the Economic LongWave, or Kondratieff cycle, and Martin Armstrong's model differ in the following critical ways: 1. Cycle Basis - Kondratieff Cycle (Economic LongWave): This model runs on long-term economic cycles stimulated by technological innovation, capital investment, and debt accumulation. It posits that economies go through foreseeable phases—Spring, which is expansion; Summer,[...]

  • Recession Update: What will the economy look like in 2025?

    Published On: August 17, 2024Categories: Recession Watch

    As we approach the end of 2024, many economic tailwinds that have supported growth over the past few years are beginning to dissipate. This raises a crucial question: What will the economy look like in 2025 once these supportive factors have fully wound down? Understanding the Tailwinds of Recent Years In the aftermath of the[...]

  • The Hidden Risks of Low Interest Rates During Kondratieff’s Monetary Wave

    Published On: August 15, 2024Categories: Kondratieff's Monetary Wave

    Low interest rates have been a defining feature of the Monetary Wave, shaping the economic landscape over the past few decades. While these rates have been celebrated for spurring economic activity and fostering growth, they have also introduced significant risks that are often overlooked. The long-term impact of sustained low interest rates has profound implications[...]

  • Samsung Just Showed a 600-Mile Solid-State EV Battery

    Published On: August 6, 2024Categories: Creative Destruction, Schumpeter

    This development aligns with Schumpeter's idea of "creative destruction," where innovative breakthroughs disrupt and eventually replace existing technologies. In this case, Samsung's solid-state batteries could render current lithium-ion technology obsolete, driving significant progress in the EV market. Additionally, this innovation is expected to be a key component of Kondratieff's fifth wave—a long-term economic cycle characterized[...]

  • Asset Manias and Their Collapses

    Published On: August 5, 2024Categories: Asset Mania's

    The Common Denominator of Asset Bubbles Throughout History    Asset bubbles share several common denominators, regardless of the era or the specific assets involved. Understanding these elements helps identify and avoid future bubbles. Here are the key factors: 1. Excessive Speculation: - Speculation drives asset prices far beyond their intrinsic value. Investors buy not based[...]

  • Why Has the Economic LongWave Model Maintained Such a High Cash Position Over the Past Two Years?

    Published On: August 2, 2024Categories: TELTAAM, The LongWave Model

    Based on the present combination of extreme valuations, unfavorable and deteriorating market internals, and a rare preponderance of warning syndromes in weekly and now daily data, my impression is that the speculative market advance since 2009 ended last week. Barring a wholesale shift in the quality of market internals, which are quickly going the wrong[...]