The real estate supercycle, which has persisted from 1867 to 2024, is nearing its peak. This conclusion is supported by the recent implementation of various measures designed to accelerate demand. However, a deeper analysis reveals underlying trends that may lead to a shift in the market dynamics. The reality is that a slowing net demand for new buyers entering real estate and an exponential increase in mortality rates in Canada will likely bring an ample supply of homes. This scenario echoes lessons from Japan’s secular fall in home prices between 1989 and 2006.


Historical Context: Understanding the Supercycle


The real estate supercycle refers to extended periods of rising property values punctuated by shorter correction phases. Numerous economic, political, and social events have shaped the real estate market since 1867. Each era has brought about significant transformations in urban development, infrastructure, and population growth from the Industrial Revolution to the digital age.


Key Drivers of the Current Market


In recent years, a combination of factors has accelerated the demand for real estate, pushing the market toward its potential peak:


1. Economic Policies and Interest Rates: Central banks worldwide have implemented policies to maintain low interest rates, making borrowing cheaper and more accessible. This has encouraged more individuals and investors to enter the real estate market.


2. Government Incentives: Various governments have introduced tax incentives, subsidies, and grants to promote homeownership and stimulate real estate investment. These measures have further fueled demand, especially in residential sectors.


3. Urbanization and Population Growth: Rapid urbanization and population growth have intensified the need for housing, commercial spaces, and infrastructure. Major cities worldwide have seen a surge in real estate development to accommodate this influx.


4. Technological Advancements: Innovations in construction technology, smart home systems, and real estate platforms have streamlined the buying, selling, and managing of properties. This has made real estate investment more attractive and efficient.


5. Global Investment Trends: The globalization of real estate markets has led to increased foreign investment. Investors seeking stable and lucrative opportunities have turned to real estate in major urban centers, driving property values.


Indicators of a Market Shift


While the demand continues to rise, several indicators suggest that the market is approaching its peak and might experience a shift:


Slowing New Demand: The influx of new buyers entering the real estate market is decelerating. Factors such as affordability issues, changes in lifestyle preferences, and economic uncertainty contribute to this slowdown.


Increased Mortality Rates: In Canada, an exponential increase in mortality rates is anticipated, leading to a higher number of homes becoming available. This demographic shift will significantly impact the supply side of the market.


Market Saturation: In many regions and preeminent cities, real estate supply is beginning to meet or exceed demand. This saturation can lead to a stabilization or decline in property prices.


Economic Uncertainty: Global economic challenges, including inflation and geopolitical tensions, can impact investor confidence and reduce the flow of capital into the real estate market.


Regulatory Changes: Stricter regulations and policies to cool overheated markets may slow real estate growth. This includes higher property taxes, tighter lending standards, and restrictions on foreign investments.


Affordability Issues: Rising property prices have led to affordability concerns for many potential buyers, which can decrease demand, particularly in the residential sector.


Lessons from Japan: A Historical Parallel


The current situation bears a striking resemblance to Japan’s experience between 1989 and 2012. During this period, Japan saw a significant decline in home prices due to economic stagnation, demographic changes, and an oversupply of housing. The lessons from Japan’s secular fall highlight the importance of considering demographic trends and economic cycles when evaluating real estate markets.




The real estate supercycle from 1867 to 2024 has been characterized by substantial growth and transformation. As we stand on the brink of a potential peak, it is crucial to understand the complex interplay of factors driving this market. The slowing new net demand and increasing mortality rates in Canada present significant challenges and opportunities. Stakeholders can better navigate the evolving real estate landscape by learning from historical precedents like Japan. Staying informed and adaptable will be essential for investors, policymakers, and the broader community as the market transitions into its next phase.

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