Understanding the Economic Seasons: A Look at the Kondratieff Wave The Kondratieff wave, named after the Russian economist Nikolai Kondratiev who first proposed the theory in the 1920s, offers a fascinating lens through which to view economic cycles. According to this theory, the global economy experiences long-term cycles of boom and bust, spanning several[...]

Think of great investors as better at reading the odds, but with an important twist: they also understand that what you pay for changes those odds dramatically. It's like the lottery example but now consider the ticket price. If a lottery ticket costs $1, and you have a decent chance of winning $100, that might[...]

In February 1989, Toronto's real estate market was at the peak of a housing bubble. The high five-year fixed mortgage rate of 12.25% at the time reflects a general environment of high interest rates used to curb inflation throughout the late 1980s. While initially not deterring buyers due to speculative investment and demand outpacing supply,[...]

US Stock Valuations Have Reached Extreme Levels: A 95-Year Perspective. In the ongoing debate about US stock market valuations, a striking chart from the Financial Times' Daily Shot presents a compelling visualization of how extraordinary current market conditions are. By examining the ratio of non-financial market capitalization to corporate gross value-added from 1929 to 2024,[...]

The sharp downturn shown in the chart illustrates a K-wave's peak and subsequent downturn, where excessive financialization has led to economic vulnerabilities. This phase could be marked by a correction or a deflationary period where asset prices adjust and economic realities come to the forefront. Understanding this cycle is crucial for forecasting future economic trends[...]