The LongWave Model May 01, 2023

  1. For many investors, capital preservation in real terms should be more important than capital growth in notional ones.
  2. Investors – as humans – are typically loss-averse. We feel the emotional impact of equivalent gains and losses disproportionately. This does not mean we should avoid considered risks but invest dispassionately.
  3. Investing dispassionately is difficult when most investment media comprise the participants in a 24/7 circus. If the business of investing is either entertaining or exciting, you’re doing it wrong.
  4. The answer is obvious: turn off the TV
  5. True TAA remains the last free lunch in finance.
  6. Having fatally tainted monetary policy, the dismal science of economics has wrought damage across investment theory as well: ‘homo economics does not exist, and markets will never be wholly efficient until all people are, too.
  7. “The investor’s chief problem – and even his worst enemy – is likely to be himself.” (Benjamin Graham)
  8. The general principles of investing could be more precise. They should begin with the avoidance of loss.
  9. Starting valuation is the essential characteristic of any investment.
  10. The Tactical Asset Allocation model follows a disciplined approach based on Longwave, Kuznets’s (Real Estate), and Business Cycle analysis, rather than emotional decision-making

LINK To the Update : 

These insights have been documented to shed light on the internal workings of the Kondratieff, The Kuznets and The Business Cycle (The Economic LongWave) and to help expand the knowledge component, leaving the action to the individual investor’s patience, discipline, and objectivity to work with their financial advisor.

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