1787-2040 Kondratieff IUpWave 1787-1814 Spring 1789-1803 Summer 1803-1816 Monetary bear 1802-1815

I-DownWave 1814-1843 Fall 1816-1836 monetary bull 1815-1835 Winter 1836-1843 “real” bear 1835-1843


Kondratieff II-UpWave 1843-1864 Spring 1843-1853 “real” bull 1843-1853 Summer 1853-1865 Monetary bear 1853-1861

II-DownWave 1864-1897 Fall 1865-1883 monetary bull 1861-1881 Winter 1883-1896 “real” bear 1881-1896


Kondratieff IIIUpWave 1897-1919 Spring 1896-1909 “real” bull 1896-1906 Summer 1909-1922 Monetary bear 1906-1921

III- DownWave 1919-1949 Fall 1922-1926 Monetary bull 1921-1929 Winter 1926-1935 “real” bear 1929-1949 “False Spring” 1935-1945 more Winter 1945-1949


Kondratieff IVUpWave 1949-1980 Spring 1946-1970 “real” bull 1949-1966 Summer 1970-1981 Monetary bear 1966-1982

Source: The Kondratiev Cycle by Michael Alexander

IV-DownWave 1980-2024?

Fall 1983- Monetary bull 1982-2022

Winter 2024-2040?


In social cycles, one stands out for its fascinating longitudinal nature—the Economic LongWave. Since its inception in 1787, this cycle has experienced varying lengths with each wave, marking significant shifts in the global economic landscape.

We currently find ourselves amid the 86-year Saeculum cycle, heralding the commencement of what is known as “The 4th Turning.” This phase is characterized by meaningful societal changes and upheavals, setting the stage for a new transformation era.

As we explore the complexities of the Economic LongWave, it becomes evident that the cycle has yet to reach its Economic Winter phase. Instead, it lies ahead of us, awaiting its time to unfold. This impending phase holds substantial implications for economies worldwide, making it crucial for us to understand its nuances and prepare for the challenges and opportunities it may present.

In this blog, we will delve deeper into the fascinating concept of the Economic LongWave, its historical context, and how it intertwines with the broader Saeculum cycle. By understanding these cyclical patterns comprehensively, we can equip ourselves to navigate the future and embrace its possibilities.

Join us as we journey through time, unravelling the Economic LongWave’s mysteries and discovering its potential for shaping our collective destiny.

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